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Prediction-Market

Prediction Markets are decentralized platforms where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to sports and crypto prices.By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," platforms like Polymarket provide highly accurate, censorship-resistant forecasting data. In 2026, these markets serve as a primary source of sentiment analysis and risk hedging. This tag covers the technology behind decentralized oracles, event-based liquidity, and the growing role of prediction markets in global information discovery.

894 Articles
Created: 2026/02/02 18:52
Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52
Google Turns Prediction Markets Into a Search Feature

Google Turns Prediction Markets Into a Search Feature

The post Google Turns Prediction Markets Into a Search Feature appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Fintech Key Takeaways: Google is weaving prediction market data into Search, starting with Labs users. Polymarket and Kalshi will supply live probabilities on political, financial, and cultural events. The integration comes as both platforms reach record valuations and trading volumes. The line between speculation and information just got thinner. Google is rolling out a new feature that lets users tap directly into prediction market data — the collective bets and probabilities set by real traders — without leaving the search bar. Soon, typing a question like “Who’s likely to win the U.S. election?” or “What are the odds of a rate cut in December?” may yield not just headlines, but live market odds powered by Polymarket and Kalshi. The move brings a once niche, crypto-linked corner of finance into the global mainstream, effectively turning prediction markets into a public forecasting engine available to anyone with a browser. From Crypto Side Project to Billion-Dollar Business Polymarket, long associated with the blockchain ecosystem, has quietly grown into a heavyweight. The company’s latest funding round included backing from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the operator behind the New York Stock Exchange, lifting its valuation to roughly $9 billion. Kalshi, its biggest rival, has charted a similar trajectory. The platform recently secured $300 million in new funding, bringing its valuation to $5 billion — a sign that traditional finance is increasingly comfortable with the idea of crowd-sourced prediction models. Both platforms have seen explosive activity this fall. Polymarket’s monthly volume, trader count, and number of active markets all hit record highs in October. Meanwhile, Kalshi’s leadership has been vocal about expanding access, with plans to bring its markets into “every major crypto exchange and app” within the next year. A Broader Vision for Crowd Intelligence Analysts say the trend points to a major shift in how…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/11/07

Google to add Kalshi and Polymarket prediction market data

Google to add Kalshi and Polymarket prediction market data

The post Google to add Kalshi and Polymarket prediction market data appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Google is preparing to bring real-time prediction market data directly into its finance products. Summary Google is adding prediction market forecasts into search and finance. Data will come from Kalshi and Polymarket. This makes crowd-based expectations easier to check. This new feature will open a new way for users to check crowd-driven forecasts on economic and political events. The update was announced on Nov. 6 by Google Finance, with data from Kalshi and Polymarket set to appear in Google Finance and Google Search for Labs users over the coming weeks. How it works in Google Search and Finance Users will be able to type natural questions such as “Will the Fed cut rates in December?” or “What is the expected GDP growth for 2025?” and see live probabilities pulled from Kalshi and Polymarket. The interface will also show how the odds have shifted over time, similar to a price chart, giving a sense of how expectations have changed. Kalshi supplies regulated U.S. event markets tied to things like inflation reports and policy decisions. Polymarket, which also runs on blockchain rails, covers a much wider range of global topics, from politics to sports to crypto prices. Both have seen rising activity this year, with more traders using prediction markets to track future outcomes rather than relying only on polls or analysts. This update is part of a larger refresh of Google Finance, which is adding AI-driven search tools and real-time corporate earnings summaries. The goal is to make future expectations easier to explore, not just current or past prices. Why this could matter for everyday users Prediction markets work because participants have money on the line, which tends to produce tighter and faster feedback compared to opinion surveys. By placing these numbers inside Google’s search results, more people will encounter them…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/11/07

Google Finance Adds Kalshi and Polymarket Prediction Data

Google Finance Adds Kalshi and Polymarket Prediction Data

The post Google Finance Adds Kalshi and Polymarket Prediction Data appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Google Finance has quietly expanded its market tracking tools to include data from US prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket. With interest in crypto-linked prediction platforms rising, the integration highlights how traditional finance is beginning to merge with decentralized market insights. Sponsored Sponsored Prediction Markets Enter the Mainstream Google Finance recently added prediction market data from Kalshi and Polymarket, marking its first foray into event-based financial tracking. The inclusion allows users to view live odds on major events, such as elections, inflation reports, and crypto regulatory outcomes, alongside traditional assets. The feature underscores the increasing relevance of crowd-based forecasting within the broader financial ecosystem. Explore prediction markets data: Google Finance Kalshi operates under US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight, while Polymarket runs on blockchain infrastructure outside the regulated derivatives space. Their appearance on Google Finance suggests that institutional investors and data providers are beginning to treat event contracts as valuable sentiment indicators rather than speculative novelties. Bridging Traditional and Decentralized Finance The integration blurs the line between traditional financial data and decentralized information flows. For years, prediction markets remained niche platforms within crypto communities. Now, by surfacing this data through Google Finance, prediction-based insights are being normalized alongside stock and commodity information. Financial analysts say the move could help refine market sentiment analysis. Prediction contracts often react more quickly than equities or bonds to political or macroeconomic signals, offering traders an early glimpse of shifting expectations. Sponsored Sponsored “Google isn’t just displaying Polymarket data — it’s enabling AI-driven financial forecasting that could rival traditional economists.” — Crypto Trader @WinghavenCrypto Google’s new Polymarket integration isn’t just data display, it’s fueling AI-driven forecasts in Finance Turning crowd bets into probabilistic insights for queries like GDP growth This could eclipse traditional economists, democratizing foresight while blurring lines between… pic.twitter.com/f9lXufGy2B — Winghaven (@WinghavenCrypto) November 6, 2025…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/11/07

What DraftKings and FanDuel Prediction Market Plays Mean for the Sports Betting Biz

What DraftKings and FanDuel Prediction Market Plays Mean for the Sports Betting Biz

The post What DraftKings and FanDuel Prediction Market Plays Mean for the Sports Betting Biz appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. In brief Sports betting giants FanDuel and DraftKings launched prediction markets in 2025, but Bank of America downgraded both companies citing stiff competition and declining margins. Prediction market volume recently topped $2 billion weekly, with the industry projected to reach $95.5 billion by 2035 at a 46.8% annual growth rate. State regulators are challenging federal oversight of prediction markets, threatening licenses of established sportsbooks and potentially favoring newcomers like Kalshi and Polymarket. Established sports betting giants have found themselves rushing to the prediction-market table to make sure industry frontrunners don’t eat their lunch. Two of the largest sportsbooks in the United States, FanDuel and DraftKings, each launched their own prediction market play in 2025. Daily fantasy sports app PrizePicks has likewise entered the fray. But equities analysts are already suggesting these incumbents may be too late to slow the momentum of industry frontrunners, Polymarket and Kalshi, even as prediction markets face mounting legal challenges from state regulators in the U.S. Prediction markets allow their users to bet on virtually anything, not just sports: politics, stock and crypto markets, and even cultural events are on the menu. These markets are structured as futures contracts, enabling users to buy and sell shares in an outcome that later settle at $1, and are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission at the federal level. Weekly prediction market volume recently topped $2 billion across Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad, and Limitless, and has been steadily climbing each week throughout the year. (Disclosure: Myriad is a product of Dastan, Decrypt’s parent company.) An often cited Certuity report estimates that prediction markets could reach $95.5 billion by 2035, with a compound annual growth rate of 46.8%.  Prediction markets operating in the United States, such as Kalshi, require a license from the CFTC. But state gaming authorities have…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/11/07

Google Finance Integrates Polymarket, Kalshi Prediction Market Data

Google Finance Integrates Polymarket, Kalshi Prediction Market Data

The post Google Finance Integrates Polymarket, Kalshi Prediction Market Data appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. In brief Google is enhancing its Google Finance product with AI improvements. Soon, users will be able to get prediction market data from relevant natural language queries. The rollout will take place in the coming weeks with early access for Google Labs users. Google is enhancing its Google Finance platform with the help of AI, adding deep research capabilities alongside the inclusion of market data from leading prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi.  The prediction market data is expected to roll out in the coming weeks, with first access provided to Google Labs users.  “We’re also adding support for prediction markets data from Kalshi and Polymarket, so you can ask questions about future market events and harness the wisdom of the crowds,” the firm wrote in its product update.  Once a user has access, they’ll be able to ask questions in natural language via the Google Finance search bar, and be presented with relevant data from the markets.  “Just ask something like ‘What will GDP growth be for 2025?’ directly from the search box to see current probabilities in the market and how they’ve changed over time,” the update reads.  Prediction market popularity has surged in recent months, spearheaded by Polymarket and Kalshi, which recently raised funds at valuations of $9 billion and $5 billion, respectively.  The pair became the first officially licensed prediction markets of the NHL in October and have pushed incumbent wagering apps, like DraftKings and FanDuel, to throw their hats into the ring.   Mobile brokerage Robinhood has leaned into prediction markets too, partnering with Kalshi to offer contract trading on professional and college football in August. Those offerings have since expanded and are unlikely to slow soon, with Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev characterizing the prediction market space as being “on fire” during the firm’s Q3 earnings…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/11/07

Kalshi, Polymarket Slash Odds Of Trump Tariff Win

Kalshi, Polymarket Slash Odds Of Trump Tariff Win

The post Kalshi, Polymarket Slash Odds Of Trump Tariff Win appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Kalshi odds on SCOTUS upholding Trump’s emergency tariffs fell to about 28%, while Polymarket slid to 25% after the Nov. 5 hearing Justices in both blocs questioned whether the 1977 IEEPA even lets a president create tariffs, a power traditionally held by Congress A loss for Trump would ease trade-war fears and could rotate capital back to stocks, softening crypto’s recent “tariff hedge” bid Traders on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are rapidly lowering the odds that the Supreme Court of the US, SCOTUS,  will rule in favor of Trump’s sweeping tariff powers. Kalshi’s odds for a yes ruling dropped to 28%, while Polymarket’s fell to 25%. The total amount of money traded on both platforms surpassed $1.3 million, showing that the betting activity on these sites can give an early signal of how people feel about upcoming political and court decisions. This change in the case follows a hearing on November 5, where the Supreme Court justices seemed highly doubtful. They questioned whether the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) actually allows a president to create tariffs.  Chief Justice John Roberts asked if the measure was essentially a tax on Americans, pointing out that the power to tax has always belonged to Congress, not the president. If the court limits the president’s power to set tariffs, it could calm down global businesses and ease worries about rising prices and trade wars. This generally makes investors more willing to take risks. Related: China Extends 24% Tariff Suspension For A Year, Crypto Gets A Macro Tailwind It’s important to point out that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin often react to big economic and policy changes. When the tariffs were first announced, fear of inflation made Bitcoin more attractive as a protection. If those tariffs are reversed, money might flow back into…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/11/07

Google Finance to use Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets

Google Finance to use Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets

Google Finance will integrate prediction markets data into search, adding Polymarket and Kalshi probabilities so users can query event odds directly from the search box, and reporting shows the Labs-first rollout begins over the coming weeks. How will Google Finance integration show Polymarket and Kalshi market data? Rollout and Labs users The initial release is […]

Author: The Cryptonomist

2025/11/07

Rain Launches Its Decentralized Prediction Markets Protocol, Where Anyone Can Create Their Own Market

Rain Launches Its Decentralized Prediction Markets Protocol, Where Anyone Can Create Their Own Market

The post Rain Launches Its Decentralized Prediction Markets Protocol, Where Anyone Can Create Their Own Market appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Aiming to become the ‘Uniswap’ of prediction markets, Rain utilizes an AI oracle that tackles bottlenecks and is supported by a unique dispute mechanism, making prediction markets faster, more flexible, scalable, and accessible. Rain’s public Beta is now available.   Rain, a decentralized prediction markets protocol, launches its beta platform, introducing the first fully decentralized prediction marketplace where both public and, for the first time ever, private markets can be created and explored at scale. The platform allows anyone to create customized prediction markets for a broad range of global events and niche scenarios, without needing approval from a centralized gatekeeper. As prediction markets become increasingly prevalent, popular centralized models like Polymarket often face limitations in market scope, accessibility, and flexibility. Furthermore, centralized marketplaces suffer from a lack of transparency, trust, and liquidity, as they rely on governance and manual settlement that introduce delays. In many ways, this structure resembles Netflix’s curated model, where participation is controlled and content is filtered, compared to YouTube, which is open and permissionless, allowing anyone to upload content and participate. Rain addresses these challenges with an AI-based oracle engineered for verifying public event outcomes, supported by a dispute mechanism that ensures results are accurate, transparent, and resistant to manipulation. This AI oracle employs a consensus-driven approach using multiple independent AI models that collect and analyze diverse information to automatically determine outcomes. If participants dispute the outcome, an AI “judge” reviews it and issues an initial ruling. If the ruling is challenged, the dispute escalates to decentralized human oracles who deliver a final, binding decision. In private markets, creators are responsible for resolving outcomes, but a similar dispute and escalation process applies.  The native $RAIN token supports DAO governance and transparency. While prediction markets run on USDT, holding the token is required to participate in markets…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/11/06

Prediction markets are evolving into broader information trading venues: Bernstein

Prediction markets are evolving into broader information trading venues: Bernstein

Kalshi anchor partner Robinhood processed $2.5 billion in prediction-market volume in October — implying a $300 million annualized run rate.

Author: Coinstats

2025/11/06

Traders on prediction markets see a 30% chance Supreme Court backs Trump’s tariffs

Traders on prediction markets see a 30% chance Supreme Court backs Trump’s tariffs

The post Traders on prediction markets see a 30% chance Supreme Court backs Trump’s tariffs appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. A protester with the Main Street Alliance holds a sign outside the U.S. Supreme Court, as its justices are set to hear oral arguments on U.S. President Donald Trump’s bid to preserve sweeping tariffs after lower courts ruled that Trump overstepped his authority, in Washington, D.C., U.S., November 5, 2025. Nathan Howard | Reuters Traders slashed odds that the Supreme Court will uphold President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs after justices on Wednesday signaled doubts about the legality of the administration’s sweeping trade powers. On Kalshi, contracts tied to whether the court would rule in favor of Trump’s tariffs slipped to around 30% from nearly 50% before Wednesday’s hearing. Zoom In IconArrows pointing outwards A similar contract on platform Polymarket dropped to about 30% from more than 40% earlier in the week, reflecting traders’ growing belief that the justices may strike down the policy. Zoom In IconArrows pointing outwards The moves came after several conservative justices joined their liberal colleagues in expressing unease about the broad authority Trump claimed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs on imports. They sharply questioned Solicitor General D. John Sauer on the Trump administration’s legal justification of the tariffs, which critics say infringes on the power of Congress to tax. Lower federal courts have ruled that Trump lacked the legal authority to impose the so-called reciprocal tariffs on imports from many U.S. trading partners, and fentanyl tariffs on products from Canada, China and Mexico. Prediction markets, which allow traders to bet on real-world events, often react swiftly to perceived signals during high-profile court hearings. Wednesday’s shift suggested that traders viewed the justices’ tone as an indicator of headwinds for the president’s trade agenda. The Supreme Court will not issue a decision in the case on Wednesday. It is not clear when the…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/11/06

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