Gold Just Had Its Worst Day in Weeks — Here’s What Triggered the Sell-Off

TLDR

• Spot gold fell 4.3%, breaking a four-day winning streak after Trump’s speech on the Middle East conflict
• Trump said the US would hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks
• Silver dropped 7%, while platinum and palladium also declined
• UBS maintained a bullish gold outlook, forecasting an average of $5,000 per ounce in 2026
• UBS views any pullback toward $4,000 as a buying opportunity

Gold dropped sharply on Thursday after President Donald Trump gave a primetime address that left markets with more questions than answers about the ongoing Middle East conflict.

Spot gold fell as much as 4.3%, ending a four-day winning streak. At 2:12 p.m. Singapore time, it was trading at $4,562.88 an ounce. Silver dropped 7% to $69.86. Platinum and palladium also fell.

Trump said the conflict was nearing completion, but warned the US would strike Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks. He said military goals had nearly been achieved and urged allies reliant on Middle Eastern oil to help resolve the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz, before the conflict, was a transit point for around a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas. Concerns about energy flows through the waterway pushed oil prices higher.

The US dollar index rose 0.4% following the speech. Equities also fell as risk appetite weakened.

Gold had already seen a rough March. The metal dropped nearly 12% that month, its worst monthly performance since October 2008. Higher oil prices raised inflation concerns, which reduced expectations for interest rate cuts and weighed on gold.

Before the speech, traders had been betting the Federal Reserve might cut rates to support the economy if the conflict dragged on longer. Those bets shifted after Trump’s tone.

With markets closing for the Good Friday holiday, Wong said a desire to reduce risk heading into the long weekend was also influencing trading.

UBS Stays Bullish Despite the Pullback

Despite the drop, UBS is keeping its bullish view on gold. Strategist Joni Teves said in a Thursday note that the bank sees the pullback as a buying opportunity.

UBS revised its 2026 gold forecast slightly down to $5,000 per ounce from $5,200, reflecting the recent price retreat from January’s all-time high. Its 2027 forecast stays at $4,800 and 2028 at $4,250.

Teves said speculative positioning has been cleared out and ETF outflows have been contained, leaving room for investors to rebuild positions. Gold ETFs in China have continued to see net inflows, and onshore physical demand has stayed healthy.

UBS said any pullback toward the $4,000 level would be viewed as a chance to build positions.

Silver Outlook Trimmed

UBS cut its 2026 silver forecast to $91.9 per ounce from $105. Teves noted silver’s role as an industrial metal makes it more exposed to any global growth slowdown.

Spot silver was last trading at $69.86 on Thursday.

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