The crypto market weakened alongside global risk assets as investors pulled back ahead of key U.S. economic data, extending a December downturn marked by thinning liquidity and growing caution across markets.

Bitcoin BTC$86,105.63 fell toward $85,800 in Asian trading, down more than 4% over the past week, as selling pressure spread across major tokens.

Ether ETH$2,924.54 slipped to around $2,930, while solana SOL$126.59, XRP$1.8825 and DOGE$0.1292 all posted weekly losses of more than 5%, indicative of a broad retreat rather than token-specific stress.

Macro Outlook

The move mirrored weakness across global markets. Asian equities fell sharply, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index down 1.3%, while U.S. equity futures softened ahead of Tuesday’s November jobs report, which is expected to show a cooling labor market.

The dollar hovered near two-month lows, and the yen strengthened to around 155 per dollar ahead of a widely expected Bank of Japan rate hike later this week.

Crypto market capitalization edged down to about $3.06 trillion, slipping 0.2% over 24 hours and more than 2% on the week. While the market has repeatedly defended the $3 trillion level over the past 10 days, analysts say the shift from an upward trend to sideways support is a sign of weakening momentum rather than renewed strength.

“The transition from an uptrend to horizontal support is not a positive signal for buyers,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said in an email. “Selling pressure since late November has broken the short-term structure, and the market is now in a consolidation phase with downside risks still in play.”

Sentiment indicators point to rising unease. The crypto fear and greed index has dropped to 16, its lowest level in nearly three weeks, reflecting extreme caution.

The prolonged stay in fear territory without a clear catalyst echoes periods of cyclical weakness seen toward the end of previous market cycles.

$81,000 as a baseline

Bitcoin briefly slipped below $87,500 earlier in the week before recovering toward $90,000, but the broader technical picture has deteriorated.

FxPro analysts say a return toward the $81,000 area now represents the baseline scenario, although a period of range-bound consolidation remains possible if selling pressure eases.

Still, broader indicators suggest the market is entering a deeper corrective phase. Binance Research estimates total crypto market capitalization has fallen about 15% over the past 30 days.

December is typically a lower-liquidity period, increasing the risk of sharper price swings as traders adjust exposure ahead of year-end.

Prediction markets also reflect a more cautious outlook. On Kalshi, the majority of users expect bitcoin to finish the year below $100,000, with the probability of a move above that level sitting at just 23%.