Will Bitcoin eventually be replaced too?

AOL discontinued dial-up internet access yesterday, Sept. 30, 2025, ending the access service while AOL Mail and other products remain.

According to AOL, the AOL Dialer and AOL Shield are now retired, with instructions for users to transition off legacy connections now posted for support reference.

The shutdown affects a tiny fraction of U.S. households and arrives as crypto markets mature through new access channels that change how investors reach Bitcoin without changing what Bitcoin is.

The dial-up analogy surfaces whenever markets rotate or infrastructure sunsets, yet dial-up was an access modality to a network, not the network itself.

So, in short, no, Bitcoin is not going to be replaced like dial-up has been.

However, let’s dive into why and where the actual comparison between the internet and Bitcoin adoption remains valid.

Bitcoin is a monetary asset and a base settlement protocol.

If there is a parallel to AOL in crypto, it is the set of custodial front ends, exchange on-ramps, and second-layer user experiences that rotate as technology and regulation move.

The network that dial-up connected to, the Internet, persisted and scaled across broadband and mobile generations.

Per the International Telecommunication Union, about 5.5 billion people, roughly 68 percent of the world, were online in 2024, a reminder that networks expand while edge access changes.

The proper crypto mapping treats ETFs, stablecoins, and Layer-2s as access rails that can broaden participation, not as replacements for the base monetary layer.

Dial-up’s remaining footprint offers a perspective on sunset dynamics.

The 2023 American Community Survey counted about 163,401 U.S. households reporting dial-up alone, a heavily rural slice that persisted because of last-mile constraints and price sensitivity.

According to the US Census Bureau, those households sit beside far larger shares on mobile broadband and fixed broadband, underscoring that a network’s long tail of legacy access can coexist with new rails before finally being retired.

Crypto’s access mix looks similar in principle, with direct self-custody, exchange custody, programmatic exposure through ETFs, and emerging account-abstraction models all serving the same monetary protocol.

Capital access has shifted fastest.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States have created a broadband-like on-ramp for institutions and advisors, converting operational hurdles into ticker exposure in brokerage accounts.

Per Farside Investors’ live tracker, cumulative net inflows since January 2024 now stand north of $60 billion, with flows pulsing alongside macro and positioning rather than vanishing when volatility fades.

CoinShares’ recent weekly notes through September reported ongoing inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum products, flipping risk on and off week to week while maintaining a durable base of assets under management.

The ETF channel does not replace Bitcoin; it replaces operational friction in the way dial-up once gave way to cable, fiber, and 4G, all serving the same Internet.

Macro provides the cycle’s backdrop. On Sept. 17, the Federal Reserve cut the target range by 25 basis points to 4.00 to 4.25 percent, with officials emphasizing a cautious path that leaves optionality if inflation stalls above target.

According to the Fed’s implementation note, the standing repo facility and administered rates were adjusted to match the new range, keeping money-market plumbing aligned with policy intent.

Inflows into listed products tend to build when real yields stabilize and credit spreads stay orderly, so allocation channels rather than base-layer throughput often set the incremental marginal buyer for Bitcoin in this phase of the cycle.

Adoption data keep the framing honest.

Global crypto ownership sits in the mid-hundreds of millions. According to Triple-A’s 2024 report, about 562 million people held crypto last year, with nearly 6.8 percent penetration, with wide regional dispersion and methodology caveats that differ from on-chain counts.

Crypto.com’s market sizing placed end-2024 ownership closer to 659 million, a reminder that top-down survey-based estimates vary and should be treated as ranges rather than point truths.

On-chain activity often diverges from price and AUM, with Glassnode documenting that active address counts remain below 2021 highs even as capital access has broadened through ETFs, a gap consistent with a savings-led cycle rather than a payments-led one.

Lightning Network public capacity has drifted down from late-2023 peaks above 5,400 BTC to roughly 4,000 to 4,200 BTC by August 2025, a move that fits an architecture and UX reshuffle as custodial accounts and alternative scaling choices absorb some flows; the live series remains the right reference for current readings.

The replacement question is better tested as a set of vectors rather than a slogan. One path is monetary substitution in payments, where stablecoins or future CBDCs dominate transactions while Bitcoin concentrates as a savings instrument.

A second is functional abstraction, where layers and custodial accounts mask base-layer complexity much as broadband masked copper and modems for Web users. A third is competition from other L1s in payment or compute niches, which does not automatically dislodge Bitcoin’s store-of-value role if institutional rails and custody continue to harden.

Each path is observable with data, including ETP flows, wallet counts, stablecoin settlement, and layer capacity. Per Farside and CoinShares, the capital rail is the clearest change so far.

A small set of system risks continues to anchor the forward view.

Policy remains the swing factor, including stablecoin legislation, bank connectivity, and ETP rule adjustments that could slow flows even if demand is intact.

Macro can reprice allocations quickly if inflation stalls above target or re-accelerates, which would pressure the Fed’s easing path and lift real yields, a setup that historically cools inflows into long-duration risk. Network structure deserves monitoring, especially pool concentration.

According to b10c’s 2025 analysis, roughly six mining pools account for more than 95 percent of recent blocks, which is pool concentration rather than ultimate asset ownership but still relevant for transaction selection, fee dynamics, and potential MEV concerns.

Execution risk shows up in Lightning routing concentration and channel management, which should be assessed next to growth in off-channel and custodial usage rather than read as a singular demand gauge.

Allocation and penetration scenarios frame 2026 to 2030 without resorting to price targets. A conservative path assumes about 0.5 percent allocation from global investable assets into Bitcoin across ETFs, corporate treasuries, and HNW custody, yielding hundreds of billions of potential demand over a full cycle, with choppy pacing if inflation surprises.

A base case uses a one percent allocation that, over time, creates a trillion-plus demand capacity if custody, clearing, and advisory workflows keep integrating Bitcoin.

An aspirational case in the two to two and a half percent range requires benign macro, scalable market plumbing, and clear policy, which would be equivalent to multi-trillion dollar capacity over the cycle.

On the user side, slow, base, and fast tracks range from about one billion to more than two billion crypto owners by 2030, depending on mobile wallet integrations, regulatory clarity, and the split between savings and payments.

The ITU baseline helps position those ranges on the adoption curve, since the world’s Internet penetration already sits near the upper half of the S-curve.

Framed this way, the end of dial-up clarifies the debate.

Access layers come and go as distribution, regulation, and user experience improve, while the network or monetary base can endure.

ETFs, stablecoins, and Layer-2s operate like broadband for capital and transactions, expanding the addressable base for savings and settlement without requiring a replacement for Bitcoin itself.

AOL’s original dial-up service is off, but the Internet is still on.

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