XRP vs. History: After a -23% Start to 2026, Can Q2 Repeat 2017’s Success?

XRP is finishing the first quarter on an ambiguous note. Despite local success in March, the overall performance at the start of the year requires a close look at historical patterns before entering the second quarter. A look at XRP’s return table by CryptoRank over the past 13 years shows that the second quarter is rarely neutral. It is a time of either explosive growth or deep market cleansing.

Q2 for XRP: Bearish filter or bull trap?

The most striking example remains Q2, 2017, when the asset posted an incredible gain of +1,109%. In 2025, last year, the second quarter closed in modest but confident positive territory at +7.12%. However, investors should also remember 2022, when Q2 delivered a decline of -59.4%.

The first quarter of 2026 is approaching its end with a negative result of -23.7%. In XRP’s history, such “red” first quarters have often preceded attempts at recovery in April-June:

• April, the month of hope: The average April return stands at a record +24.8%. History includes years of explosive growth, such as in 2021 (+174.1%) and 2017 (+137.3%).
• May, extreme swings: This month tends to show either massive gains (+378.1% in 2017) or serious corrections, as seen in 2021 and 2022. The average figure remains high at +25.1%.
• June, the cooling period: Unlike the beginning of the quarter, June has historically been weaker, with an average result of -5.10%.

Considering that 2025 closed largely in the “red zone” from September to December, and the beginning of 2026 continued the downward trend, the market is currently in an oversold state.

For XRP, the second quarter of 2026 is a moment of truth, with two possible outcomes clear: 

• Bullish scenario: Based on April’s median return (+2.05%) and average (+24.8%), XRP price has every chance to close the next month in positive territory, breaking the streak of underperformance.
• Conservative scenario: If XRP fails to overcome the pressure from the start of the year, a repeat of 2024 may occur, when a weak March was followed by a deep April decline (-20.8%).