Circle Internet Group (CRCL) Stock Surges 7.5% on Clear Street Buy Rating

Key Takeaways

• Clear Street analyst Owen Lau upgraded CRCL to Buy from Hold, increasing the price target from $92 to $136
• USDC circulation reached a new record of $79 billion after recovering from January’s $70 billion level
• Analyst identifies five key growth drivers: tokenized financial products, prediction market expansion, Middle East payment needs, AI agent infrastructure, and upcoming stablecoin regulation
• Year-to-date, CRCL shares are up 46%, though they remain 56% below the June 2025 high of $264
• Expected passage of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act by summer’s end could trigger additional institutional investment

Shares of Circle Internet Group rallied 7.5% to $123.98 during Monday’s session after receiving a bullish upgrade from Clear Street, which elevated the stablecoin issuer to Buy and boosted its price target from $92 to $136.

Circle Internet Group, CRCL

The surge positions CRCL for its strongest closing price since October of last year, data from Dow Jones Market Data indicates.

Analyst Owen Lau at Clear Street outlined five distinct catalysts supporting the upgraded rating, emphasizing that each reflects genuine commercial adoption of USDC rather than speculative cryptocurrency trading.

Circulation of USDC has rebounded to a record $79 billion after sliding to approximately $70 billion in late January. This growth occurred despite the broader cryptocurrency market tumbling roughly 44% from October 2025 peaks.

The ongoing Middle East conflict represents one significant demand driver. As traditional banking infrastructure and currency exchanges face disruption throughout the region, individuals have increasingly adopted USDC for remittance transactions and international payments — precisely the use case for which the stablecoin was originally designed.

Institutional Tokenization and Betting Platforms

Financial services firms continue accelerating their tokenization efforts — converting traditional assets into blockchain-based instruments — with USDC becoming a preferred settlement mechanism due to its regulatory framework and widespread platform integration.

Prediction markets contribute additional growth. Polymarket, which processed $22 billion in trading volume during the previous year and plans U.S. market entry, exclusively settles transactions in USDC. Increased activity on such platforms directly translates to higher USDC circulation.

The development of agentic AI represents a longer-horizon opportunity. The concept envisions autonomous AI agents executing tasks — arranging travel, executing contracts, processing purchases — without requiring human intervention. Such automated transactions demand digital payment infrastructure with 24/7 settlement capabilities. Circle is developing its Arc blockchain protocol specifically to support this emerging ecosystem.

Legislative Progress Expected

Clear Street anticipates a favorable regulatory development in coming months. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act remains under negotiation, with the primary debate centered on whether stablecoin holders should receive yield on their holdings.

Given President Trump’s active engagement in pushing stakeholders toward resolution, Clear Street projects the Clarity Act will become law before summer concludes. The firm believes passage would remove a significant barrier to institutional capital allocation in digital assets.

The $136 valuation target applies a 30x EV/EBITDA multiple to Clear Street’s fiscal 2028 adjusted EBITDA projection of $1.132 billion, with an additional $2.3 billion in net cash incorporated.

CRCL experienced a dramatic decline from its $264 June 2025 peak to approximately $50 in February 2026 — representing an 81% drop — before staging a recovery exceeding 100%. The stock has gained 45.5% year-to-date and closed Monday’s session at $123.98.

Other Wall Street analysts maintain positive outlooks. Bernstein SocGen confirmed its Outperform rating, while Mizuho Securities lifted its price target to $120, highlighting that USDC transaction volume had exceeded competing stablecoin USDT for the first time since 2018.

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