Kalshi Enters Brazil in First International Move With XP Inc

Kalshi enters Brazil through XP Inc., offering event contracts tied to inflation and interest rates to millions of brokerage clients.

Prediction market platform Kalshi has started its first international expansion through a partnership with Brazil’s largest brokerage, XP Inc. 

The company plans to offer event contracts linked to Brazil’s economy. The move connects Kalshi’s regulated US platform with one of the largest financial client bases in Latin America.

Kalshi Partners With XP for Brazil Expansion

Kalshi has partnered with Brazil’s largest brokerage, XP Inc., to begin its first international expansion by introducing yes-or-no contracts tied to Brazil’s economic indicators.

The contracts will focus on events such as inflation levels and interest rate changes in Brazil.

These markets will allow participants to express views on economic developments through structured contracts.

The offering will be available to Kalshi’s US investors and select XP clients in Brazil. Access will initially be provided through Clear Corretora, a brokerage brand within the XP group.

Clear Corretora clients with international accounts will be able to use XP’s US brokerage structure to access the contracts. This structure allows the products to operate within existing regulatory frameworks.

According to Bloomberg XP reported about 4.8 million active clients as of December. The brokerage has expanded its services in recent years to include a wide range of financial products.

Lucas Rabechini, head of financial products at XP, explained the company’s interest in the market. He said prediction markets could provide innovative financial tools for investors.

“When we saw prediction markets, we saw markets that could be not only innovative but disruptive,” Rabechini said.

Luana Lopes Lara Leads Global Expansion

Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara said international partnerships allow the company to reach new markets faster.

She explained that working with established financial firms provides access to existing customers.

“It makes sense for us to go through these international partners,” Lopes Lara said. “They already have the customers, they have the brand.”

Lopes Lara was born in Rio de Janeiro and later moved abroad to study. She attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology where she studied computer science and mathematics.

At MIT, she met co-founder Tarek Mansour. Both founders developed an interest in prediction markets and financial modeling during their time at the university.

They founded Kalshi in 2018 and began building a regulated exchange focused on event contracts. The platform allows traders to speculate on the outcome of real world events.

In 2021, Kalshi received approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The approval allowed the company to operate as a federally regulated prediction market exchange.

The company later expanded its contract offerings to include events such as elections, economic indicators, and sports outcomes.

Related Reading: Prediction Market Kalshi Faces Legal Battle Over Khamenei Market

Brazil Watches Prediction Market Development

Brazil currently does not have specific regulations for prediction markets. Government officials have begun monitoring developments as global platforms expand into the sector.

The country’s finance ministry said it has started preliminary discussions about prediction market activity. Authorities are observing how these products operate in international markets.

Prediction platforms already host contracts related to Brazilian political and economic events. Companies such as Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to trade on possible outcomes.

Local financial institutions are also exploring the space. B3 SA, the operator of the Sao Paulo stock exchange, is considering entry into prediction markets, according to local reports.

Kalshi has stated that global expansion remains part of its long term strategy. The company said it aims to eventually expand services to more than 140 countries.

“We see Brazil the way the US was years ago with prediction markets,” Lopes Lara said. “It’s our second country, so we will be able to go a lot faster than we did in the US when starting.”

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