Bitcoin Plunges, But Crypto Winter Could Soon Thaw

• Willy Woo warns that liquidity weakness could prevent Bitcoin from sustaining rallies soon.
• $45,000 seen as a typical bear bottom; deeper levels remain possible.
• Matt Hougan says investors sold positions, not conspiracies, causing a crash.

Bitcoin’s latest slide has triggered a fresh round of panic, blame games, and predictions. But on-chain analyst Willy Woo and Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan are offering a much calmer, data-driven perspective on what is really happening behind the scenes.

Their message is simple. This looks like a classic crypto winter. And winters do not last forever.

Willy Woo: Relief Rally Possible

According to Willy Woo, the aggressive sell-off that pushed Bitcoin lower appears to be running out of steam. That could give the price some breathing room. Bitcoin may consolidate sideways for about a month. There is even a chance of a rebound into the mid-$70,000 range. But he warns that such a bounce would likely face rejection. Why?

Woo points to a bigger problem: liquidity.

He says both spot and futures liquidity are deteriorating simultaneously. Historically, Bitcoin has never sustained a rally when both liquidity sources are trending bearish. In his view, the broader regime remains heavily negative.

According to his estimate:

• Q4 could mark the end of the broader bearish trend
• Q1 or Q2 of 2027 could see bullish momentum return

As for downside levels, he outlines several key zones:

• Around $45,000 would be a “typical” bear market bottom
• $30,000 becomes the fallback support if global macro conditions deteriorate
• $16,000 is the final major line that must hold to preserve Bitcoin’s long-term bull structure

One point Woo raises is that Bitcoin has only existed during a global macro bull market from 2009 to 2026. If that macro backdrop breaks down structurally, the assumptions investors rely on could change dramatically.

Woo has often been accurate in spotting Bitcoin bear market bottoms. In 2018, he said the price was near a bottom before it rebounded from around $3,200. In 2022, he again signaled a bottom near $15,500. While not perfect on timing, his on-chain models have worked well historically.

Jane Street Conspiracy? Matt Hougan Says It’s Much Simpler

While technical analysts debate support levels, social media has been busy hunting for villains. After earlier blame cycles targeting Binance, Wintermute, offshore hedge funds, and even “paper Bitcoin,” the latest name circulating online is Jane Street.

Matt Hougan is not buying it. He says the conspiracy theories are wild and constantly shifting. In his view, the real reason Bitcoin fell is far less dramatic. A large number of investors who were long Bitcoin simply decided to sell.

They sold:

• Spot Bitcoin
• Leveraged futures positions
• Covered calls written against Bitcoin

And they did it for multiple reasons:

• The four-year cycle
• Fears around quantum computing
• Reallocation into AI startups
• Profit-taking

According to Hougan, most of that selling pressure is now largely exhausted. He describes the current phase as a “classic crypto winter.” And if history repeats, a classic crypto spring will follow.

Related: Michael Saylor Unveils Bitcoin Digital Credit Strategy at Strategy World