PA Daily News | Changpeng Zhao says he has lowered his confidence in the Bitcoin supercycle; Elon Musk says SpaceX may be able to bring Dogecoin to the moon next year.

Today's top news highlights:

Changpeng Zhao: I've lowered my confidence in a Bitcoin supercycle, but I still believe it could happen.

Tom Lee: All the signs that the crypto market has bottomed out are now present.

Hyperliquid announced that HyperCore will support "Outcome Transactions" (HIP-4).

Strategy's BTC holdings have a paper profit of $1.332 billion, while BitMine's ETH holdings have a paper loss of $6.5 billion.

A 74-year-old French man was kidnapped and tortured for 16 hours; the kidnappers mistook his son for a cryptocurrency tycoon.

Musk: Maybe next year SpaceX will be able to land Dogecoin on the moon.

Galaxy Digital: Bitcoin may test the 200-week moving average of $58,000 within months.

Opinion: If BTC fails to recover quickly after breaking below the 100-week SMA, it will likely fall 45%-58% to around the 200-week SMA within 30-50 days.

Macro & Regulatory

US prosecutors accuse stablecoin laws of allowing crypto companies to profit from fraud.

According to CNN, New York Attorney General Letitia James, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, and several other prosecutors recently sent a joint letter to federal senators criticizing the GENIUS Act, a stablecoin regulatory bill, for serious flaws. They argue that the act fails to effectively protect victims of fraud and could provide legal cover for stablecoin issuers to "profit from fraud." The letter alleges that while the bill establishes bank-like reserve requirements for stablecoins, it lacks provisions mandating the return of stolen funds to victims. This deficiency, they argue, "emboldens stablecoin issuers and even provides legal cover for them to continue controlling stolen funds instead of returning them to victims." The letter further accuses two major issuers of specific actions: Tether, while capable of freezing suspicious USDT transactions, only handles them on a case-by-case basis when cooperating with federal law enforcement; and Circle, even after agreeing to freeze funds, is accused of holding them rather than returning them to victims, earning interest by investing in the underlying assets—a "clear" economic incentive to refuse law enforcement requests.

The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) has added "ADG platform/格睿德" to its list of suspicious virtual asset trading platforms.

The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) announced today that it has added "ADG platform/格睿德科技有限公司" to its list of suspicious virtual asset trading platforms. The SFC stated that the entity claims to offer trading services for tokenized physical assets and stablecoins that are suspected of constituting "securities" on its platform, and is suspected of engaging in unlicensed activities.

Hong Kong hosted its first annual meeting of the Interpol Cybercrime Panel, covering topics such as virtual asset tracking.

According to China News Network, Hong Kong hosted its first annual meeting of the Interpol Cybercrime Specialist Group. The meeting covered multiple topics including online extortion, artificial intelligence, and virtual asset tracking. Hong Kong Police Commissioner Chow Yat-ming stated that the police have noted the emerging trend of virtual asset-related crimes and established a Virtual Asset Intelligence Task Force last year as a public-private partnership platform to jointly address technological challenges. The Hong Kong Police Force has also developed a virtual asset tracking system to visually present the virtual asset investigation process and provide comprehensive support to investigators.

A 74-year-old French man was kidnapped and tortured for 16 hours; the kidnappers mistook his son for a cryptocurrency tycoon.

Three men in their twenties have been arrested for allegedly kidnapping and torturing a 74-year-old man, according to French media reports. The incident occurred early on January 25 in Voiron, Isère, in southeastern France. The kidnappers attempted to extort $3.5 million worth of cryptocurrency from the victim's son, but ultimately discovered that he was not a cryptocurrency tycoon, but rather an ordinary web developer. Police stated that the victim suffered nearly 16 hours of torture after being kidnapped, including having his fingers cut off and sustaining facial injuries. The kidnappers also took the victim to a back room of a bar, filmed the abuse, and sent the video to his son via encrypted message demanding a ransom. After confirming the mistake, the kidnappers released the victim that evening. In recent years, kidnapping and violence related to cryptocurrency have been on the rise in France. Statistics show that 19 similar cases were reported in France last year, including the kidnapping of Ledger co-founder David Balland and his wife. Police are urging cryptocurrency holders to be vigilant and guard against potential threats.

The US reduced tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%, and India agreed to stop buying Russian oil and switch to buying US oil.

US President Trump announced a trade agreement with India, under which the US will drastically reduce tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18% in exchange for India lowering trade barriers, ceasing purchases of Russian oil, and instead buying oil from the US and, possibly, Venezuela. Trump stated that Indian Prime Minister Modi pledged a significant increase in "buying American goods," including over $500 billion worth of energy, technology, and agricultural products. Under the agreement, the US will remove the 25% punitive tariff previously imposed on India for purchasing Russian oil. Furthermore, Modi stated that the agreement will allow "Made in India" products to enjoy lower tariffs and thanked Trump. Analysts believe this move will align India's tariff levels with those of other Asian countries, helping to eliminate the drag on Indian exports and the rupee exchange rate. India's Trade Minister also stated that the agreement will bring more development opportunities to the Indian economy. It is worth noting that the details of the agreement have not yet been fully disclosed, including the specific timeline for tariff reductions and the list of US goods India has pledged to purchase. Trump also hinted that India might replace some of its Russian oil imports by purchasing Venezuelan oil.

Project Updates

Aster CEO responds to market doubts and announces development roadmap

Aster CEO Leonard has officially responded to the ongoing FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) surrounding the project. He stated that the allegations circulating are "completely false" and constitute "unsubstantiated and malicious manipulation of public opinion." Regarding allegations of "sell-offs, CZ's involvement, and whether the project is a "liquidity exit," Leonard clarified that CZ is merely a project advisor, and the investment from Yzi Labs is locked up long-term. Aster is an independently operating project, not controlled or directly operated by CZ or Binance entities. The allegations are "baseless." He also emphasized that token releases and buybacks follow a transparent token economic model, designed to incentivize ecosystem participants rather than facilitate sell-offs. The project recently upgraded its buyback mechanism, implementing daily automatic buybacks on-chain (funded by protocol revenue) to improve transparency and predictability. Leonard provided the following on-chain verifiable data: a total of 254 million tokens have been repurchased; 78 million tokens have been burned and an equivalent amount relocked to the airdrop pool; and plans are in place to burn all remaining repurchased tokens. The project's next development priorities include: expanding asset liquidity and accelerating new listings; launching a privacy-first Layer 1 network in March to achieve both transaction verifiability and privacy protection; subsequently launching a staking function for token holders; and optimizing the trading experience and interface design. Token economic model optimization directions include: S6 being the final airdrop, future circulating supply growth will slow; suspending the monthly 1% unlock until staking is implemented; and continuing automatic buybacks (up to 80% of fees will be used for buybacks during S6).

Later reports indicated that Aster will launch its sixth phase of the buyback program on February 4th: up to 80% of daily platform fees will be used for ASTER buybacks .

Aave's founder purchased a five-story luxury mansion in London last year for approximately $30 million.

Stani Kulechov, founder of the decentralized finance platform Aave, has purchased a £22 million (approximately $30 million) mansion in London's Notting Hill neighborhood. This transaction is one of the most expensive in the UK's sluggish luxury property market over the past year. Documents show the property was purchased last November for approximately £2 million less than the previously listed guide price. The deal occurred a week before the UK budget was released.

Musk: Maybe next year SpaceX will be able to land Dogecoin on the moon.

Tesla Owners Silicon Valley, a Tesla platform user, unearthed a 2021 tweet from Musk on social media that read, "SpaceX will send a real Dogecoin to the real moon," and tagged Musk asking, "When?" Musk responded, "Maybe next year."

xAI is hiring cryptocurrency finance experts globally, with an hourly rate of $45-$100.

xAI has posted a job opening, recruiting financial experts in the cryptocurrency field globally. This is a remote position, primarily responsible for improving xAI's AI models' capabilities in the cryptocurrency and digital asset markets through high-quality annotation, evaluation, and professional analysis. Responsibilities include, but are not limited to: on-chain data analysis, DeFi protocol research, cross-exchange arbitrage, perpetual contract trading strategies, market microstructure analysis, cryptocurrency portfolio optimization, and risk management. Candidates should possess deep knowledge and practical experience in quantitative finance, blockchain technology, and cutting-edge AI applications. Requirements include a Master's or PhD degree in quantitative finance, extensive experience using cryptocurrency data tools, and excellent analytical and English communication skills. The hourly rate ranges from $45 to $100, depending on the candidate's experience and qualifications.

Tria launched its TRIA token economics, with a community share of 41.04%.

Tria has launched a self-custodied financial operating system based on the TRIA token, aiming to achieve unified consumption, trading, and revenue across chains without bridging, gas fees, or custody. TRIA, as the system's native token, handles value settlement, execution coordination, and incentive alignment, supporting its consumer-facing digital bank and infrastructure layer, BestPath. The total supply of TRIA tokens is 10 billion, using a fixed supply, no-inflation model, with an initial circulating supply of 21.89%. The token allocation plan includes the community (41.04%), the foundation (18%), ecosystem and liquidity (15%), investors (13.96%), and core contributors (12%). All tokens will enter circulation through a pre-set unlocking plan. Previously, it was reported that Binance Alpha would list Tria (TRIA).

Later reports indicated that at least 232 Binance Alpha Points could be redeemed for a TRIA airdrop of 2,500 .

MagicBlock Announces $BLOCK Token Economics: 35% Allocated to the Community

MagicBlock, the real-time engine for Solana applications, announced the economic model for its native token, $BLOCK. MagicBlock introduces "Ephemeral Rollups (ERs)," a lightweight, high-speed Solana virtual machine instance that can be launched instantly and optimize on-chain computing performance. The total supply of $BLOCK is 10 billion, with 35% allocated to community users, 15% to node operators, 20% to investors, 18% to the team and advisors, and 12% to the ecosystem fund. Team tokens will be locked for 3 years and will be gradually unlocked based on ecosystem growth milestones. Since the launch of MagicNet in June 2025, MagicBlock has processed over 1 billion transactions and attracted 27,000 unique addresses. MagicBlock has announced a presale of its $BLOCK tokens on February 5th. The presale offers two options: Option 1 is a first-come, first-served elastic curve model, where tokens will be fully unlocked during the TGE (Token Generation Event); Option 2 is a fixed-price model (100M FDV), where tokens will be locked for one year after the TGE, prioritizing long-term supporters. The presale will be divided into two phases: a 24-hour priority period for whitelisted addresses on February 5th, followed by 48 hours open to all. The TGE is expected to take place from the end of Q1 to the beginning of Q2 2026. Previously, MagicBlock completed a $7.5 million seed funding round, led by Lightspeed Faction.

Moltbook's database was leaked due to a configuration issue: exposing 4.75 million records, including 1.5 million API authorization tokens.

According to a post on social media by 23pds, Chief Information Security Officer of SlowMist Technology, the AI ​​agent-dedicated forum Moltbook suffered a database leak due to a configuration issue, exposing 4.75 million records, including 1.5 million API authorization tokens, 35,000 user email addresses, 20,000 email records, and some OpenAI API keys. Users are urged to check the security of their accounts as soon as possible and change their keys and passwords promptly. Related reading: Millions of agents in social networking; Moltbook goes viral, MEME sees a surge in popularity.

Cambricon's stock price plunged nearly 14% intraday, and the company responded that it was unaware of the reason for the fluctuation, stating that many rumors circulating in the market were false.

Cambricon's stock price plummeted during trading today, falling nearly 14% at one point, bringing its total market capitalization back to around 450 billion yuan. Regarding the stock price drop, a staff member at Cambricon's board secretary office stated, "We are not entirely clear on the reasons for this (stock price fluctuation). Firstly, there are many rumors circulating in the market, which are definitely false. Secondly, there are significant fluctuations in secondary market funds and sentiment; everyone should remain rational."

Ark Invest has been buying up crypto stocks such as Circle and Bitmine, purchasing over $24 million worth in total.

According to transaction documents, Ark Invest recently bought on the dip in the crypto market, purchasing $9.4 million worth of Circle stock, $6.25 million worth of Bitmine stock, and $6 million worth of Bullish stock. It also slightly increased its holdings in Block Inc. ($1.9 million) and Coinbase ($1.25 million), bringing its total investment to over $24 million. Currently, crypto stocks are generally down; Circle's stock closed down 7.9% on Monday, Bitmine and Bullish fell 9% and 4.7% respectively, and Coinbase fell 3.5%. Bitcoin is currently trading at $78,641, down 10.9% over the past week; Ethereum is currently trading at $2,331, down 20% for the week. Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood stated on social media that the recent rise in gold prices may signal the start of a new bull market for Bitcoin, noting that since the beginning of 2020, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold prices has been 0.14, and that gold prices have led Bitcoin's major rallies in the past two cycles.

Auction functionality is now available on the Uniswap web app.

Uniswap Labs announced on its X platform that the auction feature on the Uniswap web application is now live, allowing users to discover, bid on, and claim tokens from the same platform. This feature is powered by Continuous Clearing Auctions (CCA).

Step Finance hack statement: Approximately $40 million was stolen, and about $4.7 million in losses have been recovered.

Step Finance issued a statement regarding the hacking incident on its X platform, disclosing that approximately $40 million was stolen from its vault due to an intrusion into the devices of its executives. After detecting the security vulnerability, Step Finance collaborated with cybersecurity researchers and relevant departments to launch an investigation into the attack and notified law enforcement. During this period, some operational activities were temporarily suspended. Approximately $3.7 million in Remora assets and $1 million in other positions have been recovered. As the largest liquidity provider for Remora Markets, LP activities will resume once the system is fully secure. Remora Markets is not involved in this incident, and all rTokens remain 1:1 secured by escrow collateral. At this stage, it is recommended that no one use STEP tokens until the investigation is complete. System snapshots will be obtained prior to the exploit to ensure the security of STEP token holders. Updates will be released immediately as soon as any progress is made.

SpaceX acquires xAI, valuing the company at $1.25 trillion.

Elon Musk's rocket company SpaceX has acquired xAI, the artificial intelligence company he founded three years ago, at a valuation of $1.25 trillion. This is a massive and unconventional deal aimed at integrating the two previously unlisted companies ahead of their planned IPO this year. The IPO is reportedly poised to be one of the largest in history in terms of market capitalization. Previously, Bloomberg reported that SpaceX was in advanced talks to merge with xAI, with an announcement potentially as early as this week.

WSJ: Cboe targets prediction markets, plans to relaunch "all or nothing" options products.

According to The Block, citing The Wall Street Journal, major derivatives exchange Cboe Global Markets is considering relaunching "all-or-nothing" binary options contracts for retail investors to directly compete in the rapidly growing market prediction space. The contract will operate as a fixed-income derivative, paying a fixed amount if the underlying asset meets preset conditions at expiration, otherwise it will be worthless. Cboe previously launched binary options linked to major financial indices in 2008, but delisted them due to their failure to attract a market dominated by institutions at the time. With this planned revival, the exchange stated that it will conduct rigorous legal and compliance reviews before listing the product, and the relevant contracts will be regulated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Hyperliquid announced that HyperCore will support "Outcome Transactions" (HIP-4).

Hyperliquid announced on its X platform that HyperCore will support "Outcome Trading" (HIP-4). Outcomes are fully collateralized contracts that settle within a fixed range. It's a general-purpose foundational component suitable for applications such as prediction markets and option-like finite instruments. Outcome trading introduces non-linear characteristics, periodic contracts, and a new form of derivatives trading without leverage or liquidation. This foundational component expands HyperCore's expressive power and can work in conjunction with other components such as portfolio margin and HyperEVM. Outcome contracts are currently under development and are only being tested on the testnet. A standardized market based on an objective settlement source will be deployed after the technology development is complete. The standardized market will be denominated in USDH. Based on user feedback, the infrastructure will be gradually rolled out to a permissionless deployment model.

Arcium launched its mainnet Alpha version on Solana, while Umbra simultaneously released a financial layer-shielded version.

According to The Block, the crypto-computing network Arcium has launched its mainnet Alpha version on Solana, marking its transition from a testing environment to early production-ready infrastructure. The project aims to power crypto capital markets on public blockchains, with its execution engine allowing developers to build verifiable and composable applications while keeping data fully encrypted. The first application to launch on the network, Umbra, simultaneously launched its "private mainnet," building a shielded financial layer on Solana through a phased launch, initially offering shielded transfers and crypto exchange functionality. Initially, access will be limited, opening to 100 users per week with a $500 deposit limit. Access is expected to expand and the limit increased in February.

Zama officially launched its native token ZAMA and introduced a new privacy metric, TVS.

According to The Block, open-source cryptography company Zama has officially launched its native token, ZAMA, and will be listed on exchanges such as Coinbase and Binance. The team stated that this marks the first production-scale deployment of fully homomorphic encryption technology on the Ethereum mainnet, aiming to address the trade-off between privacy and open participation in public blockchains. Simultaneously, Zama introduces a new privacy metric, Total Value Shielded (TVS), to measure the total economic value of maintaining privacy on-chain through cryptography.

Coinbase will launch Zama (ZAMA) perpetual contract trading and spot trading.

Coinbase adds DeepBook and Walrus to asset roadmap

Upbit will list BIRB (Korean Won), BTC, and USDT trading pairs.

Binance Alpha will list Echelon (ELON).

Binance Wealth Management, One-Click Crypto Buying, Instant Exchange, VIP Lending, Leverage, and Futures Trading are now available on Zama (ZAMA).

Analysis & Opinions

Tom Lee: All the signs that the crypto market has bottomed out are now present.

In an interview with CNBC today, Fundstrat co-founder and BitMine chairman Tom Lee said that all the signs of the crypto market bottoming out are now in place.

Changpeng Zhao: I've lowered my confidence in a Bitcoin supercycle, but I still believe it could happen.

According to Forbes, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao stated during a live stream on Binance's social media platform, "A few weeks ago, I was quite optimistic about the Bitcoin supercycle, but now, given all the fear, uncertainty, and skepticism (FUD) permeating the community, and all the inflammatory sentiment, frankly, my confidence in it has decreased." He addressed allegations that Binance was behind the October Bitcoin price flash crash, which triggered one of the most severe liquidation cascades in market history. Zhao said, "The more FUD you stir up, the more chaotic the community becomes, the greater the negative impact. Currently, we are living in a very volatile period of global geopolitics. It's difficult to predict what will happen next." However, he believes a Bitcoin "supercycle" is still possible.

Coinbase analyst: Claim that "gold led the Bitcoin rally" lacks supporting data.

David Duong, Global Head of Investment Research at Coinbase, published an article arguing that the prevailing narrative that "rising gold prices will drive up Bitcoin prices" is flawed. He believes the recent plunge in gold prices following the announcement of the Federal Reserve Chair nominee proves that gold trading is driven more by momentum than by "currency devaluation," fundamentally undermining the narrative many have imposed on gold. This view is based on a quantitative analysis report from Coinbase Institutional. The report states that to verify the relationship, the research team did not simply choose a specific time lag to look for correlation, but conducted comprehensive statistical tests across multiple time windows ranging from one week to one year to explore whether a stable and exploitable correlation exists between the start of a gold bull market and the start of a Bitcoin bull market. The analysis results show that there is no consistent evidence that strong returns in gold will ultimately lead to strong returns in Bitcoin. The relationship varies across different time windows, sometimes positive and sometimes negative, and most correlations lack statistical significance. Therefore, the analysis concludes that the view that "rising gold prices are a leading indicator of rising Bitcoin prices" is not supported by statistical data.

Opinion: If BTC fails to recover quickly after breaking below the 100-week SMA, it will likely fall 45%-58% to around the 200-week SMA within 30-50 days.

According to Ali Charts analysis, the 100-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) has historically been a key macro support level for Bitcoin. Since 2015, each time Bitcoin has broken below the 100-week SMA, it has typically failed to recover quickly and has instead dipped further to the 200-week SMA, usually accompanied by a deep retracement of 45%-58%, lasting approximately 30-50 days. Past cycles show the following patterns: December 2014: After breaking below the 100-week moving average, Bitcoin fell 55%, taking approximately 35 days to reach the 200-week moving average; November 2018: After the weekly close below the 100-week moving average, the price fell 45%, taking approximately 28 days; March 2020 (pandemic crash): It fell from the 100-week to the 200-week moving average in just one week, a 47% retracement; May 2022: After breaking below the 100-week moving average, Bitcoin fell 58%, taking approximately 49 days. As of last week, Bitcoin closed below its 100-week SMA again. If this historical pattern repeats itself, a pullback of approximately 50% is possible, with a downside target range of $56,000 to $50,000, potentially occurring between March and April.

JPMorgan Chase remains bullish on gold, raising its year-end 2026 price target to $6,300.

JPMorgan Chase has raised its 2026 gold price target to $6,300 per ounce, representing an upside of approximately 34% from the current price of around $4,700. The bank's analysts believe that despite recent market volatility triggered by the nomination of the new Federal Reserve Chair, the long-term upward trend in gold prices remains unchanged. The core drivers of rising gold prices are continued demand from central banks and investors' portfolio diversification efforts. JPMorgan emphasizes that strong demand is putting pressure on the inelastic gold supply, which will drive prices up in search of a new market equilibrium. The bank states that regardless of future monetary policy, gold's status as an effective safe-haven asset and portfolio hedging tool will not change. Compared to gold, the bank holds a more cautious view on the short-term outlook for silver.

Glassnode: The downtrend in Bitcoin continues; short-term stabilization may depend on the easing of selling pressure and a recovery in demand.

According to Glassnode analysis, Bitcoin fell to $74,000, with the 14-day RSI entering oversold territory, indicating significantly weakened momentum. Spot trading volume rebounded somewhat, but the reaction was sluggish, suggesting the downtrend continues rather than presenting a buying opportunity. The spot market is dominated by sellers, ETFs remain under pressure, the derivatives market is experiencing significant deleveraging, on-chain activity is sluggish, and the market as a whole has entered a risk-averse mode. Short-term stabilization may depend on the easing of selling pressure and a recovery in demand.

Morgan Stanley: Warsh's Fed may exacerbate volatility in the US Treasury market.

Morgan Stanley suggests that if Kevin Warsh were to become the next Federal Reserve chairman, his tendency to reduce public communication could exacerbate volatility in the U.S. Treasury market. Warsh, who served on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011, advocates for investors to make their own judgments about the economy and policy, rather than relying on the Fed's views. Morgan Stanley analysis indicates that Warsh might prefer a smaller Fed balance sheet, which could lead to higher long-term Treasury yields and a steeper yield curve compared to short-term yields. Furthermore, he might reduce communication with the market, such as cutting back on media interaction before FOMC meetings and even potentially eliminating tools like the "dot plot," which would increase the likelihood of policy surprises and fuel market uncertainty. However, some investors believe that Warsh might place greater emphasis on data-driven decision-making, fostering consensus within the Fed. Jeffrey Palma, head of multi-asset solutions at Cohn & Stiles, stated that Warsh is likely among the recent candidates most inclined to respond to data changes.

Santiment: A surge in negative sentiment on social media may foreshadow a continued rebound.

According to Santiment's monitoring, Bitcoin has fallen 16% since January 28th, hitting a low of $74,600, and has since rebounded to $78,300. Santiment points out that this rebound is related to retail selling, further confirming that market movements often contradict public sentiment. Furthermore, negative sentiment towards cryptocurrencies has surged on social media, with retail investor sentiment at its most pessimistic level since the market crash of November 2021. This is the most pessimistic period for retail investor sentiment since the plunge on November 21st. Typically, a rebound occurs after such significant negative sentiment. So far, this rebound has been encouraging, similar to the two previous rebounds following widespread panic.

Galaxy Digital: Bitcoin may test the 200-week moving average of $58,000 within months.

Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, analyzed that Bitcoin's recent price weakness, with a 15% drop between January 28th and 31st, including a sharp 10% single-day decline on January 31st, triggered over $2 billion in long contract liquidations. Bitcoin's price fell to a low of $75,644, breaking below the average cost price of $84,000 for the US Bitcoin ETF and approaching the yearly low of $74,420 reached in April 2025. Currently, 46% of Bitcoin's supply is unrealized. The analysis indicates that Bitcoin may further decline to the bottom of the supply gap near $70,000, and even test the 200-week moving average (approximately $58,000) and realized price (approximately $56,000). These two price levels historically typically mark cycle bottoms and provide strong entry opportunities for long-term investors. Furthermore, although profit-taking by long-term holders has slowed, there are no signs of large-scale accumulation by whales or long-term holders in the market. The report also noted that Bitcoin's recent failure to rise in tandem with traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver has weakened its narrative as a "currency devaluation hedge." Analysts believe that Bitcoin may continue to face downward pressure in the coming weeks and months, but long-term investors can look for entry opportunities at key support levels.

Bernstein: The short-term crypto bear market may reverse by 2026, with Bitcoin potentially bottoming out around $60,000.

According to The Block, investment research firm Bernstein, in its latest report, points out that the crypto market may still be in a short-term bear market cycle, but this trend is expected to reverse in 2026 (most likely in the first half of the year). Bitcoin prices may bottom out near the highs of the previous cycle (around $60,000), subsequently establishing a higher price base. The institutional cycle has made this market structure different from previous retail-driven booms and busts. The report points out that US policy dynamics could be a catalyst, such as the government using foreclosed Bitcoin to build strategic reserves and changes in Federal Reserve leadership. Furthermore, institutional participation remains resilient, ETF outflows are relatively limited, and there has been no large-scale leveraged liquidation of miners as seen in previous cycles. Corporate holders (such as Strategy) continue to increase their holdings during the downturn, and miners are diversifying their revenue streams to AI-related data center businesses. Bernstein concludes that the current weakness may be a late-stage correction rather than the start of a long winter, and the market reversal in 2026 could usher in one of Bitcoin's most far-reaching cycles.

mechanism

Strategy spent $75.3 million last week to acquire 855 bitcoins.

According to official sources, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) disclosed that it spent $75.3 million last week to acquire 855 Bitcoins, at an average purchase price of approximately $87,974 per Bitcoin. As of February 1, 2026, the company will hold a total of 713,502 Bitcoins, with a total cost of approximately $54.26 billion and an average holding cost of approximately $76,052 per Bitcoin.

Bitmine increased its holdings by 41,788 ETH last week, bringing its total holdings to 4.2851 million ETH.

According to PR Newswire, Bitmine added 41,788 ETH last week, bringing its total holdings to 4,285,125 ETH.

Later reports indicated that BitMine currently holds 3.55% of the ETH token supply, reducing its total asset value to $10.7 billion .

Abraxas Capital closed its short position in HYPE, realizing a profit of $9.07 million.

The liquidation price range for Trend Research's major holding accounts was $1685.63 to $1855.16.

Trump's team allocated a wallet to transfer $22.44 million to BitGo.

Important data

Shares of Coinbase, Gemini, and Bullish have fallen by approximately 40% to 55% over the past three months.

According to Bloomberg, major cryptocurrency exchanges including Coinbase, Gemini, and Bullish are facing pressure from a sharp decline in trading volume. Their share prices have fallen by 40% to 55% over the past three months. The root of this pressure lies in the fact that most exchanges' core revenue is heavily reliant on transaction fees. When trading activity shrinks, their profitability declines rapidly. Since its all-time high last October, Bitcoin's price has fallen by more than 35%. This decline has been accompanied by widespread market turmoil, with investors withdrawing from broader equity risk assets.

Strategy's BTC holdings have a paper profit of $1.332 billion, while BitMine's ETH holdings have a paper loss of $6.5 billion.

Spot gold has rebounded to $4,900 per ounce, fully recovering yesterday's losses.

Spot gold prices have climbed back above $4,900 per ounce, fully recovering yesterday's losses, with a daily gain of over 5%.

Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a total net inflow of $562 million yesterday, reversing a four-day streak of net outflows.

According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a total net inflow of $562 million yesterday (February 2nd, Eastern Time). The Fidelity ETF (FBTC) saw the largest single-day net inflow of $153 million, bringing its historical total net inflow to $11.427 billion. BlackRock ETF (IBIT) followed with a net inflow of $142 million, bringing its historical total net inflow to $62.098 billion. As of press time, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs was $100.377 billion, with an ETF net asset value ratio (market capitalization as a percentage of total Bitcoin market capitalization) of 6.44%, and a cumulative historical net inflow of $55.569 billion.

Hyperliquid's Assistance Fund holds over 40 million HYPE tokens, representing approximately 4% of its total supply.