Bitcoin Price May Hit $50k as Fear and Greed Index Slumps

Key Insights

• Bitcoin price could crash to the key support level at $50,000 in the near term.
• The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has moved to the extreme fear zone.
• Bitcoin faces numerous risks, including the potential Iran attack and ETF outflows.

Bitcoin price continued its strong downward trend on Monday as traders reacted to the geopolitical tensions, falling BTC ETF inflows, and the nomination of the hawkish Kevin Warsh to become the next Federal Reserve Chair. This retreat may accelerate in the coming weeks, potentially to $50,000 as the Crypto Fear and Greed Index tumbles.

Bitcoin Price Murrey Math Lines Analysis Points to a Plunge to $50,000

The weekly timeframe chart shows that the BTC price surged to an all-time high of $126,000 last year, then entered a strong downward trend. This retreat occurred as the coin formed a rising wedge pattern, a pattern made up of two converging trendlines.

The coin then formed a strong bearish flag pattern, which is made up of a vertical line and a consolidation. In most cases, this pattern often leads to a strong bearish breakdown, which happened last week.

Notably, Bitcoin price flipped the Supertrend indicator from green to red for the first time since December 2021. The coin crashed by over 70% the last time that plunge happened.

Most importantly, the ongoing Bitcoin price crash started after the coin hit the Strong, Pivot, and Reverse levels of the Murrey Math Lines tool.  It has now landed at the lower Strong, Pivot, and Reverse levels, which also coincide with the lowest point in April 2025.

Losing this support will point to more downside, potentially to the Ultimate Support level at $50,000, down by 35% from the current level.

On the other hand, a move above the $87,500 resistance level will invalidate the bearish outlook and signal further gains, potentially to the psychological $100,000 level.

Crypto Fear and Greed Index Has Plunged

One potential catalyst for the ongoing Bitcoin price crash is that the Crypto Fear and Greed Index continued its strong downward trend, reaching a low of 15 on Monday. It has dropped from the year-to-date high of 60.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is an important metric that considers several key factors, including price momentum, volatility, derivatives data, market sentiment, and proprietary data.

In most cases, Bitcoin and other cryptos rebound when the Fear and Greed Index moves into the extreme fear zone. For example, the recent rebound followed the index moving into the extreme fear zone at 8. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the index and Bitcoin will continue to fall in the near term before bouncing back.

BTC Price at Risk Amid ETF Outflows and Geopolitical Fears

Bitcoin price could be at risk of a more downward trend as demand for the coin continued falling. For example, data shows that futures open interest has continued to plunge over the past few months.

Bitcoin’s futures open interest dropped to $52.43 billion, its lowest level in months. It has been in a strong downward trend after hitting a high of $66 billion on January 15. It peaked at over $95 billion in 2025.

Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETF outflows continued in January. The funds shed over $1.6 billion in January after shedding over $1.09 billion in December and $3.4 billion in November last year.

This means that these funds have now shed over  $6.1 billion in the last three months, bringing the net cumulative total to over $55 billion from the all-time high of nearly $65 billion.

Additionally, there are concerns about the Federal Reserve following Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Warsh has always been a hawk who recently changed his tune on inflation and interest rates to get his job.

Bitcoin price may also continue falling if Donald Trump attacks Iran, which analysts believe will happen. Besides, Bitcoin’s role as a safe haven has largely been invalidated in the past few months.

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