In brief
- Coinbase launched its own prediction market for users in all 50 American states.
- Users can make trades using U.S. dollars or USDC from their Coinbase accounts.
- The markets are powered by Kalshi and will be available nearly 24/7.
Publicly traded American crypto exchange Coinbase continued its expansion beyond crypto trading on Wednesday, officially rolling out its prediction market product to American users in all 50 states.
The markets allow individuals to test their knowledge across sports, culture, politics, and crypto, making use of the already established market presence and contracts offered by leading prediction market platform, Kalshi.
“Prediction markets are the ultimate form of truth-seeking,” Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong posted on X. “When there’s skin in the game, the output is far more reliable. Everything else is biased by someone’s agenda. I think we’ll look back at prediction markets as a breakthrough in how we discover truth in the world.”
Coinbase users can fund predictions using cash or Circle’s dollar-backed stablecoin, USDC, that is held in their existing exchange accounts. All of Kalshi’s markets are accessible through Coinbase, said Toni Gemayel, head of prediction markets at Coinbase, who added that the firm will be closely watching the response from users.
“We measure for success in several ways,” he told Decrypt. “Trade volume will be a great indicator of user interest as a whole, but we also want to see how they’re using prediction markets. We believe that this is an opportunity for traders to hedge against risk in a way that was previously inaccessible to them. We’re eager to provide a greater breadth of contracts, and to understand how our users value them.”
The firm first announced its intentions to join the growing sector of prediction markets in December, after volumes exploded among Kalshi and Polymarket throughout the fall, ultimately eclipsing billions of dollars in weekly trades.
Kalshi and Polymarket collectively raised more than $2.3 billion in the final months of 2025, rapidly adding to their valuations, which eclipsed $11 billion and $9 billion, respectively.
Coinbase’s adoption of the product makes it one of the biggest firms to feature a prediction market, joining publicly traded brokerage and trade-everything firm, Robinhood, which also makes use of Kalshi’s prediction market contracts.
While their popularity has exploded, scrutiny surrounding prediction markets has also increased of late—particularly as it relates to sports contracts, which are likened to sports gambling.
Earlier this month, prediction market platforms in the state of Tennessee were ordered to remove sports related contracts. Kalshi then sued the state’s attorney general and its sports betting regulator in federal court, arguing the state had no grounds to regulate its offerings.
Prior to its Wednesday launch, Coinbase has already had a brush with controversy related to prediction markets. In October, Armstrong purposefully ran through a list of words that predictors had bet he would say during an earnings call, leading to criticism about “market manipulation.”
At the time, Armstrong called it a “fun” moment of spontaneity, and a representative for the firm told Decrypt that his “closing remarks were made in a lighthearted, offhand way, referencing online discussion around the earnings call.”
Coinbase’s prediction markets platform allows traders to make bets on what the firm will say during its next earnings call, though it has only generated around $13,000 in total volume.
Traders will be able to make predictions on Coinbase at nearly all times, except for a two-hour maintenance period early on Thursday mornings, according to the site’s FAQ.
Shares of COIN are down around 0.32% amid the news, and have fallen nearly 45% in the last six months to change hands at $210.26.
Editor’s note: This story was updated after publication to include comments from Coinbase.
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Source: https://decrypt.co/356236/coinbase-rolls-out-kalshi-powered-prediction-markets-across-united-states
