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Bitcoin risks fourth straight monthly loss,
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Bitcoin risks fourth straight monthly loss,
Bitcoin risks fourth straight monthly loss, a streak not seen since 2018
6 min read
Bitcoin risks fourth straight monthly loss, a streak not seen since 2018
A rare streak of four consecutive declines collides with January options expiry that could influence short term price action.
By James Van Straten|Edited by Oliver Knight
Jan 26, 2026, 11:39 a.m.
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Red traffic signal. (GoranH/Pixabay)
What to know:
- Bitcoin is hovering near $87,000 and is on track for a fourth consecutive negative monthly close, a pattern not seen since 2018.
- Jan. 30 options expiry on Deribit totals about $8.5 billion in notional value, with heavy interest in $100,000 calls and a max pain level near $90,000.
Bitcoin is on course for a fourth consecutive monthly decline, a rare stretch not seen since 2018 to 2019, when the market recorded six straight red months. There is still one full trading week left in January, but bitcoin is slightly down on the month, hovering around $87,000.
The asset posted negative monthly closes in October, November, and December, marking a sharp correction from its October all time high. From peak to trough, bitcoin has declined roughly 36% over that period.
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Notably, even the 2022 bear market, when bitcoin collapsed from $69,000 to $15,000 amid quantitative tightening and crypto specific industry failures, it did not produce more than three consecutive negative months. That historical comparison highlights how unusual the current streak would be if January also closes lower.
Short term optimism
Despite the weakness in spot prices, derivatives markets suggest some tentative optimism. According to Deribit data, options positioning points to modest upside interest into month end.
Bitcoin faces an options expiry on Jan. 30, with total open interest set to expire at roughly $8.5 billion on Deribit. The $100,000 call option holds the highest notional value, close to $900 million, indicating that a meaningful cohort of traders are positioned for a rebound at the six figure level. The max pain price for this expiry sits near $90,000. Max pain refers to the price level at which the largest number of options contracts expire worthless, which can create a gravitational pull toward that level as expiration approaches.
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KuCoin Hits Record Market Share as 2025 Volumes Outpace Crypto Market
KuCoin captured a record share of centralised exchange volume in 2025, with more than $1.25tn traded as its volumes grew faster than the wider crypto market.
What to know:
- KuCoin recorded over $1.25 trillion in total trading volume in 2025, equivalent to an average of roughly $114 billion per month, marking its strongest year on record.
- This performance translated into an all-time high share of centralised exchange volume, as KuCoin’s activity expanded faster than aggregate CEX volumes, which slowed during periods of lower market volatility.
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Bitcoin hash rate slides during U.S. winter storm while markets shrug off mining disruption
The temporary loss of mining power underscores academic concerns that geographic and pool concentration can magnify infrastructure failures, though markets showed little immediate reaction.
What to know:
- Bitcoin’s hashrate fell about 10 percent during a U.S. winter storm, underscoring how local power disruptions can strain the network’s capacity to process transactions.
- Researchers have shown that concentrated mining, as seen in a 2021 regional outage in China, can lead to slower block times, higher fees and broader market disruptions.
- With a few large pools now controlling most of Bitcoin’s hashrate, the network is increasingly vulnerable to localized infrastructure failures, even as the price of BTC remains largely unaffected in the short term.
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