XLM Technical Analysis Jan 23

The contraction of the MACD histogram in the negative zone for XLM indicates weakening momentum, but RSI at 42 reflects a search for support – short-term recovery potential is limited.

Trend Status and Momentum Analysis

XLM is currently trading at the 0.21 dollar level and kept its daily range limited in the 0.21-0.22 band with a 1.45% decline over the last 24 hours. The overall trend direction continues downward, as the price is positioned below EMA20 (0.22 dollars). Momentum indicators confirm this weak picture: RSI(14) is hovering in the neutral zone at 42.23 points, MACD is giving a bearish signal, and the histogram shows a shrinking tendency in the negative zone. The Supertrend indicator is also in a bearish position, emphasizing the 0.25 dollar resistance. Volume is at average levels with 52.55 million dollars, but the lack of volume increase on declines implies that selling pressure is easing. In multi-timeframe (MTF) confluence, 11 strong levels were detected: 2 supports/4 resistances on 1D, 1 resistance on 3D, 2 supports/2 resistances on 1W. This structure highlights short-term consolidation and potential support test scenarios. From a momentum perspective, we are in a phase where trend strength is weakening; the EMA ribbon is sorted downward and momentum oscillators are sustaining sell signals.

RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?

RSI Divergence Analysis

RSI(14) is currently at 42.23, positioned in the neutral zone without approaching the oversold region (below 30). There are traces of regular bearish divergence recently: while price makes new lows, RSI has not formed higher lows, indicating that momentum supports the decline. However, a hidden bullish divergence signal on the 1D chart is unclear; since RSI showed a slight recovery while price was at lows, there may be short-term weakening. Weekly RSI is around 45, confirming that the long-term trend remains under downward pressure. Divergences do not provide a clear buy signal, as oversold conditions have not yet formed – selling momentum dominates but signs of exhaustion are on the horizon.

Overbought/Oversold Zones

RSI at 42 points signals easing selling pressure, but remaining below the 50 line preserves the bearish trend structure. If daily closes drop below 40, oversold discussions will begin, but at current levels, consolidation is expected. On MTF, 3D RSI has declined to 38, emphasizing medium-term weakness. If not confirmed by volume, this neutrality in RSI could lead to false recoveries.

MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics

MACD is bearish; the signal line is below the MACD line and the histogram is shrinking in the negative zone. This contraction indicates slowing selling momentum – it may be laying the groundwork for a potential crossover, but if negative histogram expansion continues, the decline will accelerate. Histogram bars shortened over the last 24 hours, suggesting bearish momentum has peaked and increasing the likelihood of a correction. No signal line crossover on the 1H chart, but bearish intersection confirmed on 4H. Negative histogram not supported by volume signals fatigue rather than a major selling wave. To watch: If the histogram approaches the zero line, bullish momentum may increase.

EMA Systems and Trend Strength

Short-Term EMAs

Price is below EMA20 (0.22 dollars), with EMA50 (around 0.23) acting as resistance. The short-term ribbon is sorted downward; when measuring trend strength, momentum is weak – price cannot test the ribbon. Compression between EMA10-EMA20 signals consolidation.

Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports

EMA100 at 0.24 and EMA200 at 0.26 form dynamic resistances. The long-term ribbon is bearishly spread, with low trend strength. On the 1W chart, EMA200 support slips below 0.21, and a break could bring the 0.1398 target into play.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC is down 0.33% at 89,645 dollars, in a downtrend with Supertrend bearish. XLM is highly correlated with BTC (0.85+); if BTC’s 88,436-86,713 supports break, XLM’s 0.2028 support will be tested. If BTC resistances at 90,371-92,316 are surpassed, an altcoin rally could follow, but rising dominance pressures XLM. With weak BTC momentum, follow XLM Spot Analysis and XLM Futures Analysis for XLM.

Momentum Outcome and Expectations

In the confluence of momentum oscillators, bearish dominance prevails: RSI neutral, MACD with negative contracting histogram, EMA ribbon sorted downward. Supports at 0.2028 (75/100) and 0.2098 (69/100) are critical; if held, the 0.2137 (80/100) resistance is targeted. If broken, 0.1398 bearish target. In a bullish scenario, 0.2844 (31 score). Momentum won’t change without volume increase. Short-term consolidation should be confirmed with MTF levels.