Rice output ‘disappointing’ even after surpassing DA’s downgraded 2025 target
PHILIPPINE production of palay (unmilled rice) rose 3.01% to 19.68 million metric tons (MMT) in 2025, recovering from the previous year’s decline but below an original official projection of over 20 MMT, analysts said.
Danilo V. Fausto, president of the Philippine Chamber of Agriculture and Food, Inc., told BusinessWorld that despite more favorable weather, last year’s rice output was still “below expectations.”
“Rice output of 19.68 MMT is a disappointment since the Department of Agriculture’s (DA) (earlier) projected output for 2025 of around 20.3 MMT to 20.4 MMT,” he said via Viber.
The DA has since downgraded its 2025 goal to 19.61-19.89 MMT.
The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported that palay output last year exceeded the 2024 total of 19.09 MMT, which had declined 4.85% from 2023.
The PSA also recorded a 2.22% increase in the harvest area to 4.75 million hectares in 2025.
Mr. Fausto said that while the harvested area expanded and support to the rice industry increased, output did not meet the early projection, warranting a review of the DA’s programs and performance.
Raul Q. Montemayor, national manager of the Federation of Free Farmers, said last year’s rice output was still below production levels seen in recent years.
“The 2025 result is actually lower than in 2021 to 2023 in terms of production, harvest area, and yield. So we are not really progressing, and in the meantime, population and rice requirements are increasing,” he told BusinessWorld via Viber.
The PSA reported palay output of 19.96 MMT in 2021, 19.76 MMT in 2022, and 20.06 MMT in 2023.
Mr. Montemayor also questioned the inability of production to keep up with demand despite the billions of pesos poured into the rice industry.
“Why is output not catching up with demand, why is the harvested area going down despite investments in irrigation, and why are yields not improving significantly despite seed, fertilizer, mechanization, and other subsidies?” he said.
Jayson H. Cainglet, executive director of the Samahang Industriya ng Agrikultura, said the increase in production and harvested areas last year was a direct result of good farmgate prices in 2024.
“2024 was a good year for rice farmers, farmgate prices ranged from P18 to P27 per kilo, thus encouraging more farmers to plant palay,” he told BusinessWorld via Viber.
However, Mr. Cainglet said that output this year will be weighed down by the sharp decline in farmgate prices over the past two cropping seasons, which may discourage farmers from increasing production.
“The same goes for other crops and the livestock sector. Positive farmgate prices will encourage more small planters to plant, and more backyard growers to raise hogs and poultry,” he added.
Former Agriculture Undersecretary Fermin D. Adriano told BusinessWorld that with palay output of close to 20 MMT, the Philippines would still need to import around 4 MMT of rice this year.
“The 20 MMT of palay will convert to around 13 MMT of rice. Our rice consumption is above 16 MMT annually. In other words, we need to import around 4 million MT (including shipments to strengthen our rice inventory) this year to ensure price stability,” he said in a Viber message.
The DA said that with the palay production target set at 20.3 MMT this year, rice imports are projected between 3.6 MMT and 3.8 MMT, levels it considers sufficient to meet demand without depressing farmgate prices. — Vonn Andrei E. Villamiel
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