U.S. inflation data surprised to the downside on Thursday, potentially setting up the economy for continued Federal Reserve rate cuts next year.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7%. on a year-over-year basis in November, according to a Thursday report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economist expectations had been for a rise of 3.1% and the previous read was 3%.
Core CPI — which excludes food and energy — rose 2.6% against forecasts for 3% and 3% previously.
Monthly data was not included as the BLS statisticians continue to suffer the effects of October’s government shutdown.
Market reaction was swift. with bitcoin BTC$85,633.44 adding about 0.5% to earlier gains, now trading back above $88,000. U.S. stock index futures also added to earlier gains, the Nasdaq 100 now ahead by 1.15%. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped two basis points to 4.12%.
Ahead of the data, markets were pricing in a 73% probability that the Federal Reserve would leave interest rates unchanged at its January meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. These softer inflation numbers though, could change that calculus and — for the moment — risk markets, crypto among them, are moving higher on the chance of easier than forecast monetary policy.
Source: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/12/18/u-s-inflation-data-surprises-with-cpi-higher-by-just-2-7-in-november
