Ethereum revenue drop to $600mln – Is BMNR’s ETH strategy at risk?

As Layer-1 use cases grow, scalability becomes an unavoidable challenge.

Notably, Ethereum [ETH] has addressed this by leaning into Layer-2s, creating a network designed to preserve throughput, keep fees low, and scale transaction volume without persistent network congestion.

In essence, scalability has been a key pillar of ETH’s mainstream adoption. 

However, that pillar now appears to be under pressure. According to a prominent analyst, Ethereum’s revenue this year has declined sharply, falling from $2.52 billion at the start of the year to around $604 million.

Base [BASE], an Ethereum Layer-2 scaling solution, highlights this shift. 

As the chart showed, Base’s 365-day Cumulative Revenue was about $83 million, but only roughly 8% of that was paid back to Ethereum as settlement fees. That’s around $6.7 million, contributing to ETH’s revenue decline.

Notably, this revenue-leakage pattern is consistent across most L2s. Arbitrum, Optimism, and Polygon, for instance, all capture a similar share of value, which gradually weakens Ethereum’s direct fee capture over time.

Put simply, weaker revenue capture points to softer ETH activity.

In that context, what exactly is BitMine [BMNR] positioning for? Does this suggest its treasury accumulation is more speculative than fundamentally driven?

BitMine’s Ethereum exposure turns speculative

BMNR’s portfolio is clearly Ethereum-heavy, holding 3.66 million ETH. 

Recently, a wallet linked to BitMine added 38,596 ETH over just two days, a sizable accumulation that might have been expected to move markets. Yet, the impact was muted, with the coin staying capped below $3,200.

The effect on BMNR was more pronounced. On the daily chart, the token closed 9.17% down, deepening the quarterly losses. With a 32% decline so far, Q4 is shaping up to be BMNR’s worst quarter since Q3 2022.

Put simply, BMNR’s Ethereum-heavy bets aren’t delivering.

On top of that, weak on-chain fundamentals (underperforming L2s) mean there aren’t enough transactions burning fees to curb supply. Ethereum stays net inflationary, keeping upward price pressure muted.

In this context, BMNR’s ETH accumulation looks less like a strategic position and more like a speculative move. If this continues, BMNR’s mNAV could drop further, highlighting the risks of its heavy Ethereum exposure.

Final Thoughts

• Ethereum’s Layer-2s (Base, Arbitrum, Optimism, Polygon) capture most transaction value, leaving ETH fee revenue down.
• BitMine’s MNAV is under pressure. Weak L2 fundamentals and muted ETH price response make the fund’s ETH-heavy treasury accumulation look increasingly speculative.