Opinion: The crypto market is still in a state of preparation, and volatility may explode at any time
PANews June 20 news, Singapore crypto investment institution QCP Capital issued a statement saying that the global market remains on the sidelines, and investors are assessing the possibility of geopolitical risks and potential volatility rebound. Gold rose and fell after the Israeli attack on June 13, weakening safe-haven demand, while WTI crude oil prices still hold the $75 mark. Energy markets continue to be constrained by the Israel-Iran conflict, and market speculation about possible US military intervention has heated up. The US dollar weakened slightly as investors bet on the increased probability of the United States directly participating in regional conflicts in the next 48 hours, triggering a moderate withdrawal of funds from the US dollar. In terms of cryptocurrencies, BTC continued to move sideways. Despite the increase in macro uncertainty and the political noise brought by Trump's social media remarks, price volatility remains sluggish. Market sentiment is cautious, and position data shows that investors are waiting for clearer catalysts.
The risk reversal indicator of BTC and ETH shows that investors in June and September contracts are more inclined to hedge downside risks, indicating that longs are actively protecting spot positions. It is worth noting that the implied volatility of ETH June at-the-money options is lower than that of September contracts, reflecting the contraction of short-term specific risk premium, which may be related to the reduction of event-driven hedging or profit-taking of short-term volatility. In contrast, BTC near-month contracts still maintain a slight volatility premium. The current crypto market is still in a state of preparation, and the next headline news, macro shift or tail event may become the fuse to detonate historical volatility.
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