British businesses in Dubai defiant despite Iran war departures

• 100,000 British nationals leave region
• Exodus not solely down to security concern
• School break brought forward

The departure of tens of thousands of British nationals from the Gulf since the start of the Iran conflict reflects a mix of disruption and seasonality, a Dubai business leader said.

More than 100,000 British citizens are thought to have returned from the region since hostilities began on February 28, according to UK foreign minister Yvette Cooper, after airspace closures stranded travellers. 

At the outset of the crisis, over 300,000 Britons were in the region, she told parliament on Tuesday, prompting the UK government to organise charter flights from hubs including Dubai and Muscat, in Oman.

While the scale of departures is significant, Katy Keenan, CEO of the British Chamber of Commerce Dubai, cautioned against interpreting the movement as a sustained exodus driven solely by security concerns.

“There was a large number of stranded tourists and holidaymakers in Dubai and the UAE at the start of the conflict,” Keenan told AGBI. “Many have now returned home via charter flights organised by the UK government or commercial services.”

The crisis also saw UAE authorities bring forward the spring school break, when many expat families typically leave the country for holidays. That seasonal dynamic is skewing the data, Keenan said, with some departures representing planned travel rather than emergency exits.

“Now that home learning has been extended and there is still regional instability, we expect that some families may decide to stay out of the UAE but only if their employers will permit it,” she said.

The UAE has indicated privately that it might allow expats to spend more time abroad without losing their UAE residency status, to incentivise them to return, according to the Financial Times. 

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However, experts have warned that British expats seeking to escape the war in the Gulf risk increasing their tax liability despite a UK concession to individuals in “exceptional circumstances”.

Regardless, Keenan said there is little evidence so far of a broader corporate pullback or long-term relocation trend.

“We are still receiving memberships from the UK, which demonstrates stable incoming interest despite the regional situation,” she said.

“There is great activity within the membership with many recruiting, new business development and many of our member companies are now back to the office.”

The chamber this week hosted its first in-person networking event since the conflict began, drawing more than 80 attendees, as companies resumed face-to-face activity.

“British businesses are taking stock of what the Iranian attacks mean for supply chains, costs and revenue streams and looking to make short-term adjustments that set them up for long-term success here,” said Andy Barr, director of business and trade for the UAE at the British embassy.