Toncoin (TON) Rebound Falters Below $1.50 as U.S. Shutdown Risk Weighs on Crypto

Toncoin (TON) trades near a key technical level on Friday, 30th of January, 2026, as increased macroeconomic uncertainty and general cryptocurrency market volatility weigh on assets.

TON has been trading below the $1.50 level after a strong pullback this week. This level has been considered a key level by many traders, as it separates a positive move from a negative move.

TON has seen a strong move following an 8% drop that placed Toncoin in a specific demand zone. However, while the buyers have held up the lower levels, the price action still remains vulnerable since the recovery is yet to translate into a stronger trend. 

$1.50 Becomes Key Level for Toncoin’s Near-Term Direction

According to Umair Crypto, a popular cryptocurrency analyst, the price action needs to move above the $1.50 level if the trend is to become positive. 

The level has become a major technical level, helping to distinguish between the corrective movements and the trending movements.

Source: Umair Crypto X Post

As long as TON trades below this level, the rebound is considered to be a reactive move and not a structural one.

The failure to rise above $1.50 may lead to further pressure on the token, while a rise above it may help the token build a base and attempt a reversal in the coming sessions.

Also Read: Toncoin (TON) Price Forecast: 28% Surge Despite Bearish Signals

Toncoin Price Today Reflects Ongoing Market Caution

At the time of writing, the price of Toncoin today has been recorded at $1.43, indicating a decline of 0.22% over the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. 

Source: CoinMarketcap

Toncoin has also recorded a trading volume of $150.17 million over the last 24 hours, with its market capitalization recorded at $3.49 billion and a market dominance of 0.12%.

Toncoin price has followed similar trends to other cryptocurrencies. After recovering from the price point of $1.41, its price has failed to sustain its momentum following a decline in Bitcoin price.

Macro Stress Signals Add Pressure Across Risk Assets

In addition to this, the broader macro environment remains unsettled, as pointed out by the crypto analyst, Wimer.x. The past few sessions have witnessed unusual cross-market moves. 

These include the sharp one-day declines in gold and silver, equities, and the US dollar, as well as the strong inflows into bonds. 

These synchronized moves among traditionally uncorrelated markets are now being viewed as a symptom of high systemic stress.

U.S. Government Shutdown Risk Raises Volatility Outlook

Adding to this uncertain backdrop, Wimer.x noted that, expectations of a U.S. government shutdown are rising as deadlines approach to fund the government. 

Currently, prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are showing a probability of an 86% chance of a shutdown. This can cause delays in paychecks, contracts, approvals, and even announcements of critical economic indicators. 

In the past, such occurrences have been known to cause a surge in volatility in financial markets, including crypto assets.

Toncoin Outlook Remains Cautious Near Decision Point

With macro risks remaining high and Toncoin trading just below a key technical level, the next days are set to be decisive.

Until TON can recover and hold price action above the key level of $1.50, downside risks remain alive and market participants are advised to remain cautious.

Also Read: Toncoin Eyes $2.00 Breakout After Holding Critical $1.50 Support